With ever-increasing needs for electricity, Delaware is on the brink of making a critical decision about its energy future.

Four state agencies will decide Tuesday whether that future includes wind power from 150 turbines off the coast of Rehoboth Beach. In making that choice, they'll have to make a lot of predictions.

In one scenario, four state agencies would order Delmarva to lock into a 25-year contract with Bluewater Wind in the hopes of offsetting increases in fossil fuel costs, heavy taxes on carbon emissions and fierce competition for a limited supply of renewable resources.

In the other scenario, the agencies turn down the contract, entrusting Delmarva to largely set its own course. Such a path could include a heavier dependence on transmitting power in from out of state, including a bet that less-expensive wind power would be available from onshore facilities.

A state consultant report and a review by Public Service Commission staff this week may have given momentum to the Bluewater Wind scenario.

Under the Bluewater contract, Delaware could make a major financial commitment to buying renewable energy. The $1.6 billion project would lessen the state's reliance on fossil fuels, resulting in less regional pollution.

Delmarva President Gary Stockbridge believes there's a more cost-effective way to promote renewable energy. He said there will be plenty of wind capacity available onshore from other states. Wind power merchants are knocking down his door to strike a deal, he said. Delmarva can get a better price if the state will only let it listen to offers, he said.

Brian Parsons, project manager for wind applications at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Colorado, said there are problems with banking on land-based wind power. He questions whether there will be adequate supplies to meet the growing demand. And he said transmission systems may not be capable of bringing in all the wind power from out of state.

"You might be able to get it quicker onshore, you might be able to get it cheaper onshore. But those are some 'mights,' without any bird in the hand," said Parsons, whose lab leads renewable power research for the U.S. Department of Energy. As for the Bluewater project, "It's certain, you know something about it, you know the costs. You don't know what the other alternatives are."

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